For the past 3 years, the market has been booming across the province. However, recent statistics for the last two quarters of 2022 and Q1 2023 show different realities across the province. This slowdown underscores the importance of understanding the specific needs of each market and adapting marketing strategies accordingly.

With this information in hand, we are able to provide an in-depth analysis of projections for the coming quarters. At REALTA, we are committed to providing accurate and detailed information to help our customers navigate this changing market.

An encouraging May for residential sales

During the month of May 2023, the Québec City census metropolitan area (CMA) recorded a total of 865 residential sales within its territory. Although this figure represents a decrease of 14 transactions compared to the previous year, the drop of only 2% is considerably smaller than previous declines. These figures reflect a reassuring resilience on the part of buyers and sellers, who are benefiting from a fairly buoyant residential market despite recent economic and social changes.

These trends, combined with an economy that continues to grow and resist inflationary pressures, point to a more positive path for the future of residential real estate in Quebec.

Property categories

Fewer new properties on the market

Despite the fact that new properties on the Quebec market have become rarer over the past five years, the inventory of properties for sale has been increasing for several months. This trend gives potential buyers more choice in their purchasing process. In fact, the supply of properties for sale has been increasing by around 3% per month since the end of last year. The province is experiencing an increase in its inventory, largely due to a decrease in the number of real estate transactions. Here are the declines in the number of transactions by region.

Inventory registration on the rise

Indeed, property sales fell by 32% compared with the same months the previous year. However, it is important to note that the 1st quarter of 2022 had seen an exceptionally high number of real estate transactions. This drop in sales is remarkable when we look at the percentage of transactions in relation to the number of new properties put up for sale, a key indicator of the state of the real estate market.

For the first quarter of this year, this percentage was 59%, significantly lower than the 77% for the same period in 2022. Despite these challenges, the provincial real estate market remains resilient, offering opportunities for buyers and sellers who demonstrate a strategic and professional approach.

Transactions on the decline

Property sales were down 32% compared with the same months the previous year. However, it is important to note that the 1st quarter of 2022 had seen an exceptionally high number of real estate transactions. This drop in sales is remarkable when we look at the percentage of transactions compared to the number of new properties put up for sale, a key indicator of the state of the real estate market.

For the first quarter of this year, this percentage was 59%, significantly lower than the 77% for the same period in 2022. Despite these challenges, the provincial real estate market remains resilient, offering opportunities for buyers and sellers who demonstrate a strategic and professional approach.

Trend analysis

The trends observed in the first quarter of this year and even earlier should continue to dictate the realities of the real estate market in 2023. The quarter-point increase in the key interest rate at the beginning of June should also have an effect on the real estate market.

It should also be noted that there are fewer first-time buyers and fewer local and international investors in the current real estate market. This could contribute to a continued decline in median property prices over the coming months of 2023, particularly in areas most affected by the 2022 spring overbid, such as Montreal and the Outaouais. Regions such as Quebec City could see prices remain more stable, or even increase slightly. It’s important to note that, despite these fluctuations, property prices remain above pre-pandemic levels.

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